The dangers of a “wait for later” situation

Posted by Antonis D. Papagiannidis 21/05/2018 1 Comment(s) Economia Blog,

The way in which last Saturday the fourth (and last) review of the current Adjustment Programme (the third and hopefully very last) was concluded by the Troika/Quartet - who reportedly were over-anxious to put this routine behind them, at long last - should normally augur well for Greece exiting this unpleasant period of 8 years.

 

Still, the continuing uneasiness in the German political system prevents major pieces of the Greek post-Programme puzzle to be resolved – especially so credible debt relief, promised ever since 2012 but unpalatable to Berlin. The fact that internal equilibria in Italy are now further disturbed by a possible Europhobic government in Rome complicate things. Athens may well end up in a “wait for later” queue, while nervousness increases in the financial markets to which Greece will have to rely from now on.

 

It is not only a matter of the extent of debt relief to be granted to Greece; not even of the conditionality, that is of the strings attached to such relief at German insistence (thus making the future access of Greece to the markets quite iffy a proposition). The form the post-Programme monitoring or surveillance – or whatever – will take may well play an unpleasantly heavy role in Greek politics in the near future. And thus undermine stability. A “wait for later” situation entails important risks.

 

 

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