A double-jeopardy (or a double-οpportunity) week for Greece
A double-jeopardy (or could it be a double-opportunity) week opens for Greece and its negotiations with creditors. In Washington, on Monday, the IMF's Executive Board will pore over both the Article 4 Consultation paper/Concluding Statement for Greece and the Fund's Debt Sustainability Analysis for the country's debt.
Bits and pieces of both the DSA and t he Article 4 paper have been leaked over the last few days, with the result of making it harder for the Fund to keep participating to the Programme for Greece. True enough, Paul Thomsen has spent some days in Berlin, in close consultation with Wolfgang Schaeuble and his Finanzministerium staff, trying to bridge the persisting gap over the prerequisites for Greek debt to be considered sustainable (or at least serviceable) in the long term, thus making the presence of the Fund to the Greek Programme admissible: the short-term measures adopted by the ESM to that effect being considered far less than adequate, "something" should be provided in terms of debt alleviation to Greece with a middle-term perspective.
Then, on Thursday, the EuroWorking Group will once more try and evaluate the negotiations' end-run to the (second) review to the (current, third) Greek Adjustment Programme; if, at that level, not enough progress is ascertained, neither the Troika/Quartet will be back to Athens to put finishing touches to the review, nor the Eurogroup get-together (of February 20) will have any sort o meaning for Greece.
Be it said that between now and then, Opposition chief Kyriakos Mitsotakis will make the ritual pilgrimage to Berlin, to try and convince Chancellor Merkel that his (and his party's) policy mix are better suited to deal with the Greek impasse.
Once more, the question will arise: is there any time left for Greece and its creditors, before the good ship "The Greek economy" runs aground?