All of a sudden, many indicators of the difficult relationship of Greece with its European creditors turn to green. The Troika who was in Athens for the third review of the Greek Programme has been pleasantly constructive on several fronts of contention; Klaus Regling of ESM fame not only stumped up to Greece the remaining tranche of the second-review-connected euros 800 mio, but was full of praise for the cleaning of arrears on part of the Greek Government; even legendary German ex-Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, presently kicked upstairs to chair the Bundestag, saw it fit to state – now – that the situation of the Greek economy has stabilized.
Whether this will prove sufficient for the current Programme review to end successfully and on-time is not yet clear. Even less so, whether this means that such efforts will succeed to get Greece out of the extremely constraining support mechanism its creditors have arranged for it ever since 2010 when the current (third in a row) Programme ends in 10 months’ time, in August 2018. Still, fresh rumours have been running that in the very next weeks Greece will attempt a comeback to world financial markets, this time by bunching-and-reissuing a number of bonds (for over 30bn euros) ending in the next few years, so as to (a) get some further ammunition in case it really succeeds to go it alone after August 2018, (b) profit of the easy terms in the global markets as far as such terms last (with the ECB tapering near) and (c) to smooth the yield curve of Greek paper.
Will such an operation happen? Will it be successful? Will this add to (hoped-for) better perspectives for Greece in 2018? Many questions, few answers.