Growth on shifting sands

Posted by Antonis D. Papagiannidis 13/11/2017 0 Comment(s) Economia Blog,

Greece is acknowledged to be on some sort of growth path again. OK – but by how much? Well, the European Commission while in its spring forecasts thought that a growth rate of 2.1% was reachable by the Greek economy, now with its autumn forecasts it talks of just 1.6%; to be fair, Brussels keeps a more encouraging 2.5% forecast for next year. The forecasts used for the preparation of the 2018 budget by the Greek authorities stand at 1.8%, while Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras thought it fit to talk of a possible growth rate with “2” in front.

 

Meanwhile, the Bank of Greece has been talking of 1.7%, with some amelioration for the years to come. The IMF, while usually on the cool side growth-wise, mentions 1.9%-2%, provided tourism receipts nudge the last two terms of 2017 closer to 4%. Citigroup, on the other hand, thinks that the outcome will be in the range of 1-1.5%. While the group of 5 wise-mine who consult the German government is the most conservative of all, with 0.9%.

 

The overall impression one gets out of this picture reminds somehow of children’s play in the kindergarten. Or, to keep things more dramatic, of a trek on shifting sands: the thing that matters now is not who of all these worthies will prove right – or less off the mark – but what the eventual outcome will be for Greece. With all the consequences to follow in terms of primary surpluses to attain, of Programme reviews to undergo, with Programme exit to attempt…

 

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